MarketFeeder Blog
- Mon, 30 Aug 201030/08 - Update and patchIn today's update:
Look & Feel Options
Blink the market start time label starting from ... mins before the beginning
Activate this option to make the start time label of a market blink in pink colour towards the beginning of an event. This may attract your attention to markets that will soon turn In-Play. - Fri, 20 Aug 2010Labouchere
This example is about the Labouchere system. Here is a very clear explanation of how it works. Please read it before going through this example, as it is important that you've got the idea of how bets will be calculated.
The Labouchere staking plan is somewhat more complicated that others, so this time we're going to make use of Excel sheets that you can connect to MarketFeeder Pro.
I have put together an Excel spreadsheet that does all the computations. It has a neat and very simple interface that allows you to input your own sequence and watch how the bets are being placed.
Take a look at the screenshot:
- Mon, 12 Jul 2010Determining the duration of a race and time left till the end
We have been gathering some statistics of race lengths in UK, AUS and NZL markets. Based on this statistics we put together certain formulae (linear approximation) and created triggers that can predict the length of a particular race, in seconds.
Also, they can predict the time left till the end of the race, +/- 6 sec. I thought you might be interested in these triggers. A lot of MF Pro users asked us if it was possible to place a bet at certain time before the end of the race, say 30 sec before the end. We always replied it's impossible because no one knows how long the race will last.
Well, actually now we can make an informed guess.
Right-click here to download the trigger file.
The files contains several blocks of triggers which mainly process the formulae to derive two variables, RaceTime and TimeToEnd. These values are calculated in seconds, so RaceTime gives you the length of the race in seconds, and TimeToEnd - the number of seconds left till the moment when the market is suspended.
The last block of triggers called "Betting - can be edited" contains just one sample trigger placing a bet right in the middle of the race. I suggest you do not edit or delete any trigger block except this one! In this trigger block you can put any trigger that is a part of your own betting strategy. E.g. you can lay instead of backing, or apply a staking plan (that is add multiple triggers), or change the time at which you'll be betting.
For additional control you can open the "View Variables" window and watch the two key variables as you refresh the markets. The variable RaceTime will be determined as soon as you refresh it for the first time, but TimeToEnd (understandably) will be defined only after the race begins.
- Mon, 31 May 2010Vacation discounts from June 01 to 16
All people need to rest sometimes, and we're no exception.
So we will be off for a planned vacation from the 1st till the 16th of June (01/06/2010 - 16/06/2010). During this time we will have limited access to the Internet and will be able to respond only to urgent requests. So, please be aware that all other technical support will be occasional and not guaranteed until we get back.
We appreciate that this is an unusual circumstance, that is why for a limited period of time we're giving off ALL MarketFeeder Pro licences at a 50% price!
So, from today until the 16th of June inclusive all the prices are cut in half. Check them out.
Please be aware: all subscriptions and licences are activated automatically by a standalone server working round the clock. So your orders will be processed in a normal way, within 5-10 minutes after the payment.
We still advise you to read the manual or the free materials of our web site and seek advice at the forum should you have any problems or questions about the software during these two weeks.
We will be back to work in no time, as we have so many ideas waiting to be implemented!
Best wishes,
WDS Team.
- Mon, 26 Apr 2010Back Dutching at lay prices and Lay Dutching at back prices
Update: I've added the trigger for laying at back prices.
Place back Dutch bets on selected runners to win or lose a fixed amount, but at their lay prices.
The idea behind this is obviously trying to get the lower book percentage. In overwhelming majority of cases the back book % is always higher than 100%. So backing at lay prices makes the book % less than 100%.
Right-click here to download the trigger file for back dutching.
Right-click here to download the trigger file for lay dutching.
The biggest drawback is the fact that at first all the bets may stay unmatched. But in markets with high liquidity this may be balanced by the possibility to match all the bets either a couple of minutes before the off, or when the market turns In-Play. Of course there are no guarantees whatsoever.
- Tue, 20 Apr 2010Backing by Kelly plan
This example is similar to laying by Kelly plan, only it places back bets.
Therefore, for finding the Average Odds and Strike Rate, inspect your back bets instead of lay bets. Your strike rate will most probably be much lower than that for laying strategies.
The formula for the Expectation will be the opposite:
Expectation = StrikeRate * Stake * (AverageOdds - 1) - (1 - StrikeRate) * (Stake - (Stake * Commission))
Right-click here to download the trigger file.
Be aware that the Expectation may be negative, if the strike rate or average odds are too low (take a look at the formula). In that case the trigger won't place a bet.
- Mon, 19 Apr 2010Laying by Kelly staking plan
This staking plan is based on so called Kelly Criterion - a method of calculating your stake size based on the size of the bank, the current odds and certain expectations that you have for winning or losing the bet.
The last part is the trickiest. This example is based on the article by The Staking Machine, where there are detailed computations of each component of "the magic formula". I will try to put it in simple words for you, but I expect you to have the page with the article open, so that you could follow me.
So, the strategy assumes that you lay one bet on a specific selection. You can imagine the average number of lucky and unlucky bets you've had lately, and so you can figure out approximately the Strike Rate. The Strike Rate is the percentage of lucky (winning) bets calculated against the recent account history. Say, you placed 100 lay bets, and 80 of them were winning. It means your strike rate is 80%.
Analysing the bets you've been placing, you can tell that the average price of a bet was, say, 4.2. It means you might have laid at a higher or lower price, but if you add up all the prices and divide the sum by the number of bets, you'll get the Average Odds.
It is up to you to choose the time scale on which you will base these calculations. You may look back up to thousands of records, or you may just analyse the last 5 bets. Obviously, the more the better, but even if you have an approximate idea, it will still work for Kelly plan.
These two parameters, Strike Rate and Average Odds are key in the formula for calculating the Expectation. Expectation is a theoretical prediction of the actual probability of winning for the selection you are laying on. Say Expectation is 0.25. It means the odds of selection's winning are 1/0.25 + 1 = 5.0, just like with normal odds calculation.
Having all these parameters in hand, the further lay stake is calculated by the software. There are some additional settings to this plan, such as Divisor, which allows you to regulate the percentage of the bank you want to bet. The greater is the Divisor, the less will be the stake (and less risk). Also, bets are based on the current size of the bank, i.e. the available funds. But you may change this to a fixed number, so that for instance the bet will always be a percentage of £50.
Right-click here to download a trigger file
There are numerous triggers in the file, but it is advised that you change only the triggers with the following names:
- setting divisor. Change the value of the trigger to a bigger number if you want to reduce the size of each bet.
- setting strike rate. Change the value of the trigger to set your own strike rate. Attention! Strike rate is different for each strategy. You should analyse your account statement in order to find the optimal value. The easiest way is to count winning bets and divide them by the total number of bets. Then multiply it by 100, and you will get the strike rate in %. Please note! The less is your strike rate, the smaller should be the odds of the selections you are laying on. If you have low strike rate and high average odds, most probably the bet will not be placed, as the expectation will be negative.
- setting the base for the bet. By default the base will be equal to the available funds, but you may change this value if you want bets to be calculated based on a different amount of money.
- setting average odds. This is another parameter you will have to work out from your account statement. Set this value to the average odds of your lay bets. For those who are being lazy, this trigger file contains two triggers that calculate the average odds of the last 10 bets taken from your betting history, These two triggers are inactive in the file. You can activate them yourself. Their names are "optional setting avg odds" and "optional setting history depth".
- setting divisor. Change the value of the trigger to a bigger number if you want to reduce the size of each bet.
- Fri, 09 Apr 2010Loss recoupment by Brad Jones
This trigger example has been kindly provided by one of MF Pro users and participants of the first Trigger Battle, Brad Jones.
He took fourth place in the competition, with pretty impressive results.
Here is what he says in addition to the trigger.
Recently I've spread myself too thin with a new job and family matters. Thus I don't have any intention to promote or sell my triggers, besides I'm not 100% sure it wasn't pure luck. So enjoy, but be reasonable, don't bet your last pants.
Right-click here to download the trigger file.
From what Brad has explained, I understood that the plan goes as follows.
Lay on the second favourite in a horse race, at 6 sec before the scheduled start. If the bet won, proceed in the same manner. If it lost, multiply the value of the loss by 2 and divide it by the number of remaining markets (in the list of markets for today's betting), then add that amount to the next bet. E.g. if it lost £100, and there are 8 remaining markets, add 100*2/8 = £25 to the next bet.
If that bet won, divide the amount won by two and reduce the loss by that amount. Then do the same thing as above - divide the total loss by the number of remaining market and add to the initial bet size. E.g. if the loss was £100, then you won £30, the next total loss to recoup will be 100 - 30/2 = £85. So you multiply that by 2 and divide by the remaining number of markets (in our case, by 7). Then the next bet will be initial bet size + £24.3.
If one of these bets happen to lose again, the new loss adds up to the previous loss value, and the procedure is repeated in the next market. After all loss is recouped, the trigger lays the initial stake until the next loss.
Obviously the more markets you have in the list, the less is the impact of the loss on the next bet. Towards the end of the trading session this impact becomes more and more substantial and may exceed the original bet size. So you may choose to stop laying altogether if the number of remaining markets is less than a certain minimum. The number of markets in "My Markets" can be expressed through the variable market_num.
We also recommend that you stop betting as soon as you've won a certain amount of money. You can do this by configuring the corresponding "Banking" option in "Betting Options" tab.
Also, for this plan it is essential that you configure your settings in the following way.
General Options
Delete settled events automatically - turned ON
Monitoring Options
Start monitoring events at 0.1 mins before the beginning - turned ON
If you intend to bet in Test Mode, then in "Test Mode" tab activate the following option under "Event Results" and turn OFF all the other options in that group.
Download results from BetFair wherever possible and settle markets automatically.
You can discuss this trigger on the forum. Any comments and remarks are welcome as always.
Let's thank Brad for his courtesy!
- Sat, 03 Apr 2010Trading a pre-off steamer
These are the main steps and conditions in this example:
1. Find a horse race with 13 or less runners.
2. At 5 minutes before the race take a horse priced below 4.5.
3. At 1 minute before the off check whether the back price of that selection has dropped. If there is more than one qualifying horse, take the one with the biggest price drop.
4. Back on that horse.
5. When the market turns In-Play, place a greening-up lay bet on that horse aiming to win at least 10% profit. This bet should be placed no matter what the current price is, after it's been 30 sec since the start of the race. If the bet stays unmatched, leave it there to be matched eventually.
Right-click here to download the trigger file.
There are two triggers in the file. The first file backs on the horse that satisfies the given conditions. The second trigger places a lay bet to green-up to the specified profit percentage. To change that percentage simply key in a different number in the "Profit %" field.
Below is an illustration of the triggers' work.
- Thu, 25 Mar 2010New video lesson - Getting started with MF Pro
This video should help those who has just found out about MF Pro or downloaded it for trial.
Video lesson on getting started with MF Pro.
It covers basic steps, such as logging in, adding and refreshing markets, placing bets in Test and real mode, viewing account statement and configuring connection monitor.
