Lay Dutching on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites on horse racing with green-up
Description
At 3 minutes before the start of a horse race (but not later than at 30 seconds), place three Lay Dutching bets on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites. Once any of these bets can be closed with a profit of 0.2% of the liability, or all of the remaining bets can be closed with the profit of 0.2% of the liability before the off or 0.5% at In-Play, place back bets to green up (generate equal profit).
The bets will be left In-Play, i.e. waiting to be closed until the very end of the race.
The following races work the best
- Irish and UK races;
- With a distance starting from 1600 m (~1 mile);
- With 6 to 14 runners.
Triggers
Download the trigger installation file.
Profile name: dutch-lay-favs
How to run this trigger package:
1. Download and run the above installation file.
2. It contains three files: the trigger file, the Market Locator search template and the program settings. These files will be copied to corresponding folders on your computer (where other triggers and templates are already stored).
3. Run MarketFeeder Pro and choose the right settings profile from the drop-down list:
Here are the constants you can play with:
| min_rank | Minimum selection rank |
| max_rank | Maximum selection rank |
| liab_size | Total liability per market |
| inp_trd | Tradeout profit at In-Play (% of liability) |
| idle_trd | Tradeout profit before the off (% of liability) |
| min_runners | Minimum number of runners |
| min_fav_price | Minimum price of the 1st favourite |
| max_mins_left | When to start placing the initial bets (minutes before the off) |
| min_mins_left | When to stop placing the initial bets (minutes before the off) |
| min_distance | Minimum race distance in meters |
| max_runners | Maximum number of runners in the race |
| wait_sec | How many seconds to wait before re-posting unmatched back bets |
Triggers In Action
Day 1. December 04, 2018
I started with laying the first three favourites (i.e. the 1st, 2nd and 3rd lowest-priced horses), and did it at 2 minutes before the off. My first day was miserable! Two red markets, with predictable failures with the first favourites who just refused to be greened up.
My settings:
| min_rank | 1 |
| max_rank | 3 |
| liab_size | 100 |
| inp_trd | 0.1 |
| idle_trd | 0.4 |
| min_runners | 6 |
| min_fav_price | 2 |
| min_mins_left | 0.5 |
| max_mins_left | 3 |
| wait_sec | 15 |
| min_distance | 1800 |
Total P/L: -597.34
ROI: -20.57%
Wins: 5, losses: 2
Day 2. December 05, 2018
I set the favourite’s minimum price to 4.0 (used to be 2.0) and decided to lay on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favs instead.
My settings (only those that are different to the previous day):
| min_rank | 2 |
| max_rank | 4 |
| min_fav_price | 4.0 |
This day was strikingly better than the previous one!
Total P/L: 38.92
ROI: 3.66%
Wins: 7, losses: 0
Day 3. December 06, 2018
I decided to include races with the fav’s price of as low as 1.5 or higher! Obviously, as I’m not laying on it, I should be safe.
My settings (only those that are different to the previous day):
| min_fav_price | 1.5 |
Total P/L: 31.26
ROI: 1.8%
Wins: 10, losses: 0
Day 4. December 07, 2018
I’m becoming more audacious and increasing the target profits for Idle and In-Play markets to 0.2% and 0.5% respectively. Here goes!
Also, I reduced the minimum distance down to 1,600 m (~1 m or longer).
My settings (only those that are different to the previous day):
| inp_trd | 0.2 |
| idle_trd | 0.5 |
| min_distance | 1600 |
Total P/L: 57.77
ROI: 2.98%
Wins: 12, losses: 0
Day 5. December 08, 2018
I limited the number of runners in the qualifying races to 14. I left the rest settings unchanged.
My settings:
| max_runners | 14 |
Total P/L: 63.21
ROI: 1.31%
Wins: 31, losses: 0
Day 6. December 09, 2018
I did not change anything either in the triggers or the settings.
Total P/L: 13.41
ROI: 0.88%
Wins: 11, losses: 0
Day 7. December 10, 2018
I did not change anything either in the triggers or the settings.
Total P/L: -107.26
ROI: -5.42%
Wins: 10, losses: 1
The last day was obviously a bummer: with just one loss it wiped out today’s profit and left me in the red. However, if we add up the profit from previous days after I started laying on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favs (not the first three – that was a mistake!), it turns out I earned a net profit of £97.31!
Not bad, although nothing to write home about either.
I’d definitely give this a shot and try to limit the exposure at In-Play by maybe applying stop-loss to the last selection with an open bet whose SP is way below the price at which I laid it.
I’d also venture with greater target profits (inp_trd and idel_trd) to cover the inevitable losses. I was being very cautious with my 0.2% and 0.5% respectively.
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