Football Cash Generator
At the start of a football match place a back bet on the selection named "0 - 0" in a Correct Score market.
At the same time use 95% of the expected profit from this "0 - 0" bet to place a lay bet on "The Draw" in a Match Odds market of the same game. I.e. back £10 at 12 on "0 - 0", that makes £110 expected profit. Then lay on "The Draw" at 3.5: 110*0.95 / (3.5 - 1) = £41.8.
If a goal is scored, then green up "The Draw".
When talking about this strategy we need to think of all possible outcomes. We simulated them in MF Pro 6.0, in Test Mode, to see what might happen with profits and losses if a game finished with different results.
1. One of the teams scored and the game did not end with The Draw, but the green-up trigger did not place a bet.
This means the "0 - 0" back bet lost and the lay bet placed on "The Draw" won.
In this case the loss from the back bet is usually covered by the profit from the lay bet. In the screenshot above you can see that in the end the profit is 9.5 - 2 - 0.47 = 7.03.
This is true unless the price of "The Draw" is higher than back_price*0.95, where "back_price" is the price at which the back bet was placed. So if in the example above the price of "The Draw" had been higher than 14, that wouldn't have covered the loss, see below:
Lay amount = 2*(15 - 1) * 0.95 / (14.5 - 1) = 1.97
-2 + 1.97 - 0.1 = -0.13
Why the greenup trigger might not work?
If the chances of winning are way too different for the two teams, the fact that the underdog scores a goal might not increase the odds of "The Draw". This means there won't be an appropriate price for trading out, i.e. it might grow up, but not enough for a green up.
2. One of the teams scored, then the green-up trigger placed a bet.
In this case it does not matter whether the game ended in Draw or not, since the green-up trigger guarantees equal profit in either case.
In the example above you can see that the final profit is:
-2 + 9.5 - 7.08 - 0.12 = 0.3
The higher price "The Draw" will be greened up at, the more profit you'll get. There is a minimum back price that ought to be offered for "The Draw" in order to activate the greening up.
You can watch this price through a special user variable we inserted in the trigger file. It is called "expected_price". Use "View Variables" tool to monitor this price if you want to know when the green-up will be triggered. See an example below:
3. None of the teams scored, the game ended with a nil-nil Draw.
The back bet is going to win in this case, and the lay bet will lose. If by any chance the green-up trigger gets executed, this will mean net profit in both markets. If it doesn't, then the profit from the back bet will cover all the loss from the lay bet. See below.
P/L = 28 - 1.4 - 26.6 = 0
4. The teams scored an equal number of goals, so the game ended in Draw, but the green-up trigger did not place a bet.
This is the worst possible outcome, it means that you lose in both markets, and that makes this strategy not 100% guaranteed.
P/L = -29.43 - 2 = -31.43
This may happen if "The Draw"'s price did not reach the needed green-up level. Usually, if one of the teams scored a goal, the odds of "The Draw" increase substantially, so you are supposed to have enough time to trade it out, before the next goal is scored.
Still you should bear in mind that something may prevent the trigger from placing the second bet (market gets suspended, not enough funds in your account etc.).