Greening up a horse at the next favourite's price
Description
This strategy is based on the assumption that any horse will get behind at least once during the actual race, so its price will get at least to the point of its next competitor. I.e. you lay on the 4th favourite, you then back at the price of the 5th favourite; if you lay on the 5th favourite, you back at the 6th favourite's price and so forth.
If the green-up never worked, i.e. the back bet never got matched, the trigger cancels it and trades out at 80% loss, but no sooner than at 40 seconds before the calculated end of the race (based on our statistics).
Note: if you bet on more than one horse, you can offset the losses from one horse against the gains of the others.
Triggers
Click here to download the trigger file.
Use the following constants to adjust the trigger settings:
first_bet_size: Size of the first bet (back);
sl_prc: At what loss percentage to trade out;
mins_before_start: When to place the bet (minutes before the start);
min_dist: Minimum market distance in meters. 5f = 1005.84 m, 3m = 4828.03 m;
min_rank: Minimum rank of the favourite to bet on;
max_rank: Maximum rank of the favourite to bet on;
seconds_to_end: When to apply stop-loss, seconds till the calculated end of the race;
min_runners: Minimum number of runners in the race.
Triggers in Action
It is strongly advised against running these triggers in short-distance races, primarily because the trigger waits until it is 40 seconds till the end before placing the Stop-Loss bets. Besides, in shorter races the prices tend to go up and down frantically from the very first seconds of the race, so the stop-loss trigger may kick in prematurely.
This is the picture you will likely see after the off:
As you can see, Pronounced is the 3rd favourite, so the trigger backs at the price of the 4th favourite, Make It Hurrah. At the same time, the lay bet of the 4th favourite, Make It Hurrah, is then greened up by a back bet at the price of the 5th favoruite, Masterstonemason.
At the end of the day, you may get a statement that looks like this (the triggers were tested on a full day's set of historical markets for UK races that took place on September 10, 2017. The backtesting was performed using Time Machine. The triggers bet in all races 1m or longer, with 8 or more runners):
